My Portfolio At This Moment (17/10/09)

My Portfolio Change Since Last Post

Bought Dialog for excellent quarter report announced recently. The best quarter report and the best full year annual results but is not the highest price at this moment. Future prospect remain bright with stable income and monopoly of the refinary business with Petronas. Tanjung Pengerang feasibility study with Vopak, Tanjung Langsat Second phase, Merapoh at Yan all is prospect for Dialog. Dialog recently announced dividend 2.4 cents per share and 1 for 50 special bonus.

Bought MKLand for current share price still remain 50% discount to their NTA. Hard to find this kind of discount in the current market. With the recent quarter report turning black and some property lauching, this shall boost their coming quarter results. Technically, share price well supported in 0.40 range, down side risk is limited.

Bought Plenitude for dividend play. Recently announced 14 cents dividend slightly higher than last year. So, with the current share price, the dividend yield is around 5%. But the most beautiful is their EPS (>50 cents per share) achieved in thier immediate past full year results is super excellent. Thus, with the low P/E and D/E ratio, this counter is financially sound for investment. Part of their landbank is near Johor Bahru, that is Iskandar Development Region (IDR). The potential hypermarket development nearby and rumours on LRT development passby their landbank, all is catalyst for the share price.

Bought Scomi for speculation of 7 billion LRT extension in KL. The LRT is connecting, Kelana Jaya-Putra Height-Sri Petaling. Scomi may not be able to get infra works due to stiff competition with Gamuda, WCT, MMC and etc but they have expertise in electrical technical works and the LRT container manufacturing. They have R&D segment! Besides, recently Scomi also tendering mega project oversea, like JV with local company in bidding monorail in Brazil for world cup preparation. Other project they are tendering is in Bahrain and Arab Saudi. Any one of these project if to be able to materialise, the is a boost for their share price. The current right issue by issuing ICSLS shall be able to strengthen their balanced sheet. Scomi also have grand sell comparing the share price to their NTA.

Sold GPacket for the worsening quarter results. The business is lossing 50% of their recorded revenue, meaning selling RM1.oo but making loss RMo.50. Seems like the business model is in doubt and share price yet to bottom out. However, recently right issue have boost the share price but the sustainability is in doubt. The warrant ex-price is 0.95, i believe in near term, the mother share will not exceed very much from this reference price. If not, what will happen if warrant holders execute their right? Reminded that, GPacket having share buy back > RM 1.00 during financial year 2008, excercising of warrant holder right will indirectly making a loss to the company. What will happen if too many warrant holders excercise their right? Company have suffiencient share in treasury?? Moreover, YTLP planning to invest 2.5 billion in fighting in this WIMAX business. Other competitor is Redtone and AsiaSpace S/B. This business become very competitive. I move sideways, lets wait and see what is going to happen.

Sold AirAsia for dissatisfaction of foreign investor during the AGM. AirAsia recently announced right issue for balanced sheet strenghtening. This is good but their D/E ratio remain high. With the current oil price going up, the profit for the second half of the year will not be shining as first half of the year. Besides, the delaying of flight derivery arrangement by the management, indirectly AirAsia is seeing the risk in capital but this will pause AirAsia flying higher (growing).

Sold KNM mother share but repurchase KNM warrant-CB for lowering the downside risk but gearing up the upside potential. KNM recently been link with Gorgon oil field in Australia. With the current crude oil price breakout from USD60 to USD 75 range to USD 79, in near to medium term, some project may be initiated as the project become viable now, eg oil sand project in Canada.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

Baltic Dry Index shall be in uptrend. The index is moving with the upper band of Bollinger Band, RSI is strengthening and %K cross over %D in stochastic indicator. However, the current index remain low compare to peak around 10,000.

Crude Oil Price

After consolidating in range bound USD60 to USD75 for months, now crude oil price was breakout to USD79 with candlestick of "morning star", significantly above 50 and 200 moving average and higher low formation.

History Repeat Itself Again?

Naim Holding Bhd is a well-known construction company in Sarawak. The share price soar nearly 50% from recent consolidation since July 09. However, based on candlestick chart, will the history repeat itself again? Lets see....

My Portfolio At This Moment (31/07/08)

Year To Date Performance (Till 31/7/09)

My Portfolio At This Moment

Its Really Happen !!

DRBHicom breakout !!

Triangular Formation

DRBHicom is having triangular formation. Breakout ahead?

My Stock Trading Performance

Note: Profit/loss excluding brokerage fees and dividend payout.

Called Warrant Analysis

Above table shows my Called Warrant Analysis recently. Bull run is coming?? If yes, may be is the right time to collect some potential profting warrant. To me, Resorts-CJ seem like the best option.

Sime Darby

Buy at 5.10, then sell at 6.40. Buy Low Sell High, easy to say but difficult to do.
Sime Darby was tested the resistance line three times at 5.80, 5.85 and 5.90 in the mild uptrend wedge before it breakout (see arrow).
In this case, patient is very important!

Its Really Happen !!

Bigger white candle really happen! If its tail the historical trend, the next day shall be bearish.

Bigger White Candle Ahead?

Since 16 Mac 2009, Genting had strong rally for 12 trading days bull run. Bigger white candle ahead?

From Technical Analysis (TA),

Accumulation/Distribution
-> Accumulation is gaining up.
Average Directional Index
-> Positive DI cross over negative DI on 23 Mac 2009, bull run was continuing.
Bollinger Band
-> Closing price was inline with upper band indicating ranging will be breakout to trending.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
-> MACD line started to cross over signal line since 19 Mac 2009 from trough indicating strong rebound.
Momentum
-> Momentum was building up since 16 Mac 2009.
Moving Average (14d, 25d, 50d & 100d)
-> Price line cross over all the 14MA, 25MA, 50MA and 100MA indicating strong rebound.
On Balance Volume
-> OBV line is increasing with price increasing, indicating bull run will be on going.
Parabolic Stop & Reversal
-> Green dotted line indicating bullish.
Relative Strength Index
-> Relative Strength stood at 83% which indicating overbought level.
Stochastic Indicator
-> %K still cross above %D which indicating bullish but located at overbought level.

Conclusion
Most of the TA indicator is bullish. When indicator cannot get better, it will go wrong again! Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.

Axiata Worth to Invest?

Axiata or formerly known as Telekom Malaysia International (TMI) is going to ex-right at RM1.68 on 8 April 2009. Bad debt and call for more fund to survive?

On 2 April 2009,
AmRearch rate as “HOLD”
OSK rate as “MAINTAIN”

From the distressed 4QFY08 Balanced Sheet, the current assets to current liabilities ratio was stood at 0.4 or equivalent to less than 5 months of available cash to debt serving.

4Q08 Balanced Sheet was ended on December 2008

&

5 months debt serving ability

&

now is April, 4th months after December 2008

&

what will happen if not right issue?

Since the splitting of TM to TM and TMI (now know as Axiata), the share price has plunged 67% (refer chart). What you expect 1 years, 2 years or 5 years down the road? Axiata worth to invest?

Trading Tips : P/E Ratio

Price/Earnings ratio or simply P/E ratio

The price to earnings ratio (P/E) is the relationship that the price of a share bears with its earnings per share (EPS), either current or potential.

The formula is: P/E Ratio = Price/EPS

For example, if a share is selling at RM10 and is currently earning 50 cents per share, the P/E ratio for that share is

Price/EPS = 10/0.5 = 20

The P/E Ratio is often used to calculate the value of a share but is a subjective test. Some people could consider a P/E ratio of 20 is too high while others would think it was just right. However, as a rule of thumb P/E ratio not more than 15 shall be fine and meaning the stock is not too expensive. To further justified it, we may compare with its peer industry. How about P/E ratio too low, say P/E ratio less 2. Then, further fundamental of the particular company need to be further access as market may rate this company is worthless to invest.

Where to get P/E ratio? This can be easily find from web, newspaper, online trading account and many more. However, due to market volatility, P/E ratio was changed from time to time. Thus, certain period of P/E ratio, say 5 years or 10 years, need to be find out in order to know properly for the company performance. This is to eliminate those seasonal effect which affect the particular company performance.

Sector Quarter Review

The following is the first quarter performance for each sector of Malaysia equity market.

From the chart, we noticed that since 16 Mac 2009, most of the sector has bottomed out in just 3 weeks time with positive growth and situation is not getting worse. The growth is lead by construction, plantation, consumer, trading/services and properties. However, finance, industrial product and technology remain negative.

Construction (+7.0%)
Plantation (+6.1%)
Consumer (+2.0%)
Trading/Services (+0.8%)
Properties (+0.4%)
Finance (-0.8%)
Industrial Product (-1.0%)
Technology (-18.7%)

Note: IPC, Mining & REITS sector was discarded in comparison as it driven by certain major counter.

Today KLCI

Chart A

Chart B

After another downtrend in last 2 weeks, immediately KLCI is showing strong rebound (refer chart B). Looking at the broader view (refer chart A), KLCI is still moving sideways. The resistence line and supporting line was located at 930 and 835.

Closing Price Above 14MA, 25MA and 50MA, uptrend ahead?