Called Warrant Analysis

Above table shows my Called Warrant Analysis recently. Bull run is coming?? If yes, may be is the right time to collect some potential profting warrant. To me, Resorts-CJ seem like the best option.

Sime Darby

Buy at 5.10, then sell at 6.40. Buy Low Sell High, easy to say but difficult to do.
Sime Darby was tested the resistance line three times at 5.80, 5.85 and 5.90 in the mild uptrend wedge before it breakout (see arrow).
In this case, patient is very important!

Its Really Happen !!

Bigger white candle really happen! If its tail the historical trend, the next day shall be bearish.

Bigger White Candle Ahead?

Since 16 Mac 2009, Genting had strong rally for 12 trading days bull run. Bigger white candle ahead?

From Technical Analysis (TA),

Accumulation/Distribution
-> Accumulation is gaining up.
Average Directional Index
-> Positive DI cross over negative DI on 23 Mac 2009, bull run was continuing.
Bollinger Band
-> Closing price was inline with upper band indicating ranging will be breakout to trending.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
-> MACD line started to cross over signal line since 19 Mac 2009 from trough indicating strong rebound.
Momentum
-> Momentum was building up since 16 Mac 2009.
Moving Average (14d, 25d, 50d & 100d)
-> Price line cross over all the 14MA, 25MA, 50MA and 100MA indicating strong rebound.
On Balance Volume
-> OBV line is increasing with price increasing, indicating bull run will be on going.
Parabolic Stop & Reversal
-> Green dotted line indicating bullish.
Relative Strength Index
-> Relative Strength stood at 83% which indicating overbought level.
Stochastic Indicator
-> %K still cross above %D which indicating bullish but located at overbought level.

Conclusion
Most of the TA indicator is bullish. When indicator cannot get better, it will go wrong again! Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.

Axiata Worth to Invest?

Axiata or formerly known as Telekom Malaysia International (TMI) is going to ex-right at RM1.68 on 8 April 2009. Bad debt and call for more fund to survive?

On 2 April 2009,
AmRearch rate as “HOLD”
OSK rate as “MAINTAIN”

From the distressed 4QFY08 Balanced Sheet, the current assets to current liabilities ratio was stood at 0.4 or equivalent to less than 5 months of available cash to debt serving.

4Q08 Balanced Sheet was ended on December 2008

&

5 months debt serving ability

&

now is April, 4th months after December 2008

&

what will happen if not right issue?

Since the splitting of TM to TM and TMI (now know as Axiata), the share price has plunged 67% (refer chart). What you expect 1 years, 2 years or 5 years down the road? Axiata worth to invest?

Trading Tips : P/E Ratio

Price/Earnings ratio or simply P/E ratio

The price to earnings ratio (P/E) is the relationship that the price of a share bears with its earnings per share (EPS), either current or potential.

The formula is: P/E Ratio = Price/EPS

For example, if a share is selling at RM10 and is currently earning 50 cents per share, the P/E ratio for that share is

Price/EPS = 10/0.5 = 20

The P/E Ratio is often used to calculate the value of a share but is a subjective test. Some people could consider a P/E ratio of 20 is too high while others would think it was just right. However, as a rule of thumb P/E ratio not more than 15 shall be fine and meaning the stock is not too expensive. To further justified it, we may compare with its peer industry. How about P/E ratio too low, say P/E ratio less 2. Then, further fundamental of the particular company need to be further access as market may rate this company is worthless to invest.

Where to get P/E ratio? This can be easily find from web, newspaper, online trading account and many more. However, due to market volatility, P/E ratio was changed from time to time. Thus, certain period of P/E ratio, say 5 years or 10 years, need to be find out in order to know properly for the company performance. This is to eliminate those seasonal effect which affect the particular company performance.

Sector Quarter Review

The following is the first quarter performance for each sector of Malaysia equity market.

From the chart, we noticed that since 16 Mac 2009, most of the sector has bottomed out in just 3 weeks time with positive growth and situation is not getting worse. The growth is lead by construction, plantation, consumer, trading/services and properties. However, finance, industrial product and technology remain negative.

Construction (+7.0%)
Plantation (+6.1%)
Consumer (+2.0%)
Trading/Services (+0.8%)
Properties (+0.4%)
Finance (-0.8%)
Industrial Product (-1.0%)
Technology (-18.7%)

Note: IPC, Mining & REITS sector was discarded in comparison as it driven by certain major counter.